Have the smartphone wars been won? Research firm IDC's latest smartphone OS numbers show that Google's Android OS and Apple's iOS now own 81 percent of the global smartphone market, a dramatic change from last year. No other OS has more than a 7 percent share.

I've been following the smartphone world since 2004, and things have never been this stark. Just last year there were four operating systems, all with between 15 percent and 40 percent share, according to IDC: Android, Symbian, iOS, and BlackBerry.

Nokia and RIM are now in the middle of painful platform transitions that they might not survive. Nokia's total Symbian collapse hasn't been accompanied by the rise of Windows Phone, which commands a mere 2.2 percent global share. And as for RIM, well, at the moment there's nothing good to say about RIM. At least Nokia has a new OS it can show in public.

Apple and Google are seizing more market share even as the market gets bigger, too. IDC says 50 percent more smartphones were sold in the first quarter of 2012 as opposed to 2011, but none of the other OS competitors could grab a slice of that fast-growing pie.

A Duopolistic World
The news gets worse for fans of competition when you see that 45.4 percent of all Android phones were sold by Samsung. So it may not just be an Apple and Android world, with all the diversity that "Android" implies. It may just be an Apple and Samsung world.

This doesn't say anything about product quality. Right now, my personal phone is an HTC One S, which I think is one of the finest Android phones available. Our favorite AT&T smartphone is also from HTC, our favorite MetroPCS phone is made by LG, and our favorite Cricket Wireless phone comes from Huawei.

Rather, Apple and Samsung have relentless, focused marketing efforts and highly unified brands. Nobody other than Apple has been able to get a bloatware-free smartphone onto most of the world's major carriers. Samsung's "Galaxy," meanwhile, has become synonymous with Android for many people.

This is a natural duopoly, not one created by predatory or unfair practices. Apple and Samsung didn't buy up their competitors to kill them, like AT&T was trying to do with T-Mobile. They haven't been threatening carriers who do deals with their competitors. They've just out-produced and out-marketed their rivals.

Developers will probably sigh with relief if there are only two strong mobile OSes. It's a pain to have to pick an OS for which to code. Consumers will benefit from more third-party apps being available on each platform, as devs won't be spending their energy on minority platforms. The marketplace may even get a little more peaceful and less confusing if some of the competitors die off.

But I just can't like this state of affairs. Every bone in my body says that competition creates innovation. You're always going to be more aggressive when you're taking market share, and more conservative when you're defending it. Apple innovates so aggressively in part because there's still so much market share to take.

Two operating systems, and two smartphone makers, doesn't bode well for innovation.

Things Can Always Change
I'm gloomy here because I like competition. I feel that a vibrant marketplace with three or four good competitors leads to more options and better products all around.

But there's always hope. In the past eight years I've seen Palm OS, Windows Mobile, and Symbian all dominate the smartphone scene. We're hearing wireless carriers and OEMs complain that they don't want to be too dependent on Google, which may lessen Android's share in favor of either Windows Phone or the up-and-coming Tizen.

For now, consumers buying iOS or Android phones can feel safe that they're in a big crowd. Developers can target those OSes with confidence. And the other guys, well, they have a heck of a lot to prove.